Jack Draper ready to make the Big Three the Big Four according to alternative ranking prior to Indian Wells semi-final

ATP
Saturday, 15 March 2025 at 17:18
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Jack Draper will face Carlos Alcaraz for a spot in the Indian Wells final on Saturday evening in the match crunch clash between the pair but according to an alternative ranking, he is ready to make the Big Three the Big Four.

The current Big Three a term used to describe Djokovic, Federer and Nadal in years gone by can be termed as the former alongside Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner.

Or for those not wanting to include Djokovic due to his current form, Alexander Zverev is defacto as World Number Two. Draper will move to a new career high of World No.11 come what may next week.

He is currently fourth on what is a more up to date use of rankings by TennisAbstract called ELO which takes into account an estimate of their strength in each match. If a player wins, their rating goes up. If they lose it goes down. It also takes into account multiple variables including quality of opponent.

Draper reached the final recently in Qatar and also the semi-final last year at the US Open. He is into the semi-final at least at Indian Wells and accrues points due to the strength also of his opposition. This includes two of America's finest players including Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton.

A win over Carlos Alcaraz would take that even higher. Draper sits just outside the current main four and only just. Sinner for instance sits well ahead of 2224.8 compared to 2185.9 of Novak Djokovic which means he has the highest chance currently of winning a match on the tour.

Draper sits fifth just behind Alexander Zverev on 2064.5 for the latter compared to 2035.5. The Brit is also an anomaly on the main rankings as he has spent most of his time at the top having injury breaks so isn't a true barometer of his current form but this alternative ranking is.

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The ELO has long been touted as the best barometer of current form and Draper sits fifth.

Tomas Machac for instance who recently won a title is in the top 10. Stefanos Tsitsipas sits just outside the top 10 having won a title himself. Rafael Nadal albeit is still in the ranking despite being retired for over six months but Draper has shown he has the minerals to join the Big Four currently in tennis, can he find a big win tonight to confound those expectations?

ELO Rankings as per TennisAbstract

RankNameAgeELO
1Jannik Sinner23.42224.8
2Novak Djokovic37.72185.9
3Carlos Alcaraz21.72152.2
4Alexander Zverev27.82064.5
5Jack Draper23.12035.5
6Daniil Medvedev292014
7Grigor Dimitrov33.72011.4
8Tomas Machac24.32006.6
9Taylor Fritz27.22003.8
10Tommy Paul27.71977.6
11Stefanos Tsitsipas26.51953.8
12Alex De Minaur261953.4
13Ugo Humbert26.61946
14Matteo Berrettini28.81942.7
15Hubert Hurkacz27.91939.5
16Felix Auger Aliassime24.51933.7
17Casper Ruud26.11932.9
18Holger Rune21.81932.1
19Gael Monfils38.41927.4
20Andrey Rublev27.31921.1
21Jiri Lehecka23.21915.6
22Denis Shapovalov25.81910.4
23Lorenzo Musetti22.91906.6
24Ben Shelton22.31902.7
25Joao Fonseca18.41897.1
26Thanasi Kokkinakis28.71897.1
27Tallon Griekspoor28.61880.2
28Jordan Thompson30.71876.3
29Karen Khachanov28.71872.6
30Sebastian Korda24.61869.1
31Alejandro Davidovich Fokina25.71866.5
32Learner Tien19.21859.7
33Arthur Fils20.71855.7
34Rafael Nadal38.41855.2
35Francisco Cerundolo26.51848.5
36Jakub Mensik19.41844.2
37Alex Michelsen20.51840.7
38Jan Lennard Struff34.81840.5
39Yoshihito Nishioka29.31838.2
40Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard21.61837.1
41Marcos Giron31.51834.3
42Frances Tiafoe271827.8
43Juncheng Shang19.91823.4
44Nishesh Basavareddy19.81822.8
45Miomir Kecmanovic25.41817.7
46Zizou Bergs25.71817.2
47Alexei Popyrin25.51816.7
48Hamad Medjedovic21.51816.4
49Flavio Cobolli22.81815.6
50Nuno Borges281811.1
51Matteo Arnaldi241806.6
52Reilly Opelka27.41805.3
53Pablo Carreno Busta33.51801.3
54Jacob Fearnley23.51799.5
55Brandon Nakashima23.51797.8
56Andy Murray371796.8
57Sebastian Baez24.11794.3
58Quentin Halys28.31788.3
59Marton Fucsovics331787.3
60Yibing Wu24.91785.4
61Lorenzo Sonego29.71785.2
62Laslo Djere29.71783.8
63Roman Safiullin27.51783.3
64Roberto Bautista Agut36.81782.7
65Christopher Oconnell30.71779.8
66David Goffin34.21770.7
67Gabriel Diallo23.41769.4
68Tomas Martin Etcheverry25.61767.6
69Cameron Norrie29.51763.4
70Fabian Marozsan25.31761
71Lucas Pouille30.91760.7
72Kei Nishikori35.11754.5
73Alexandre Muller281753.7
74Benjamin Bonzi28.71747.9
75Jaume Munar27.71747.3
76Zhizhen Zhang28.31742.9
77Marin Cilic36.41740.6
78Nicolas Jarry29.31737.6
79Alexander Bublik27.61734.8
80Kamil Majchrzak29.11734.3
81Camilo Ugo Carabelli25.61732.8
82Roberto Carballes Baena31.91732.6
83Emil Ruusuvuori25.91729.1
84Aleksandar Vukic28.81728
85Botic Van De Zandschulp29.31727.8
86Stan Wawrinka39.81719.3
87Brandon Holt26.81719.3
88Mattia Bellucci23.71718.2
89Mackenzie Mcdonald29.81717.4
90Pedro Martinez27.81709.1
91Arthur Cazaux22.51708.1
92Raphael Collignon23.11706.9
93Fabio Fognini37.41706.8
94Alejandro Tabilo27.71702
95Borna Coric28.21701.7
96Soon Woo Kwon27.11701.2
97Borna Gojo26.91701
98Dominik Koepfer30.71700.9
99Max Purcell26.31700.5
100Sebastian Ofner28.21699.4
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