PREVIEW | ATP Madrid Open 2025 – Quarterfinals: Jack Draper and Casper Ruud leads open draw

The ATP Madrid Open 2025 will hold its quarterfinals this Thursday, May 1st, without the presence of any top-5 players and with Jack Draper as the main favorite. The draw remains open, including Lorenzo Musetti, Casper Ruud and Jakub Mensik looking for a spot in the semifinals.

Francisco Cerundolo (20th) cannot be considered a complete surprise at this stage, with 15 wins against top-10 players, including two victories against world No. 2 Alexander Zverev, the latest of which was precisely in the previous round. This is the Argentine's 7th appearance in the quarterfinals of a Masters 1000 and he is already 11th in the Race. This could be an important chance for the South American when he faces the young Czech Jakub Mensik.

The 19-year-old surprised at the Miami Open by winning the title and undoubtedly gained a new status on the Tour. However, inexperience on clay courts might be a factor, where he still needs to show that he can reach his best level. In any case, he has already defeated significant opponents on his way, Ben Shelton (12th) and Alexander Bublik. The head-to-head record is currently favorable to Cerundolo (1-0), with their only previous match at the China Open.

Casper Ruud (14th) has had an inconsistent last year, but the clay swing is always a good opportunity to bounce back. The Norwegian had a couple of confidence-boosting wins against Sebastian Korda (23rd) and Taylor Fritz (3rd), and has not yet dropped a set in the tournament. This will be his 7th appearance in the quarterfinals of a Masters 1000 on clay courts.

Facing him will be world No. 10 Daniil Medvedev, who has always acknowledged his discomfort playing on clay courts, but has had enviable results on the surface for any player, including the title at the Masters 1000 Rome Open in 2023. The Russian defeated Brandon Nakashima (31st) 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 and secured back-to-back quarterfinal appearances. The head-to-head record is currently favorable to Medvedev (3-0), although they have not yet faced each other on clay, where Ruud is the specialist.

The world No. 6 Jack Draper is the main favorite for the title, at least in terms of ranking. Without the presence of Sinner or Alcaraz, in addition to the early defeats of Zverev, Fritz, and Djokovic, the Brit is the man to watch in these quarterfinals. Draper looks comfortable on the surface and overcame a tough challenge against Tommy Paul (11th) in the round of 16. He already won his first Masters 1000 in Indian Wells and will have a great opportunity to seek the semifinals of a tournament of this level again.

His opponent will be world No. 44 Matteo Arnaldi, a surprise at this stage of the tournament, but with sufficient arguments after eliminating Novak Djokovic in the second round and a notable victory against Frances Tiafoe in the round of 16. The Italian had reached the semifinals of the past Canadian Open and has five wins against top-10 players.

Lorenzo Musetti can be considered a strong candidate for the title after winning 9 of the 10 matches he has played on clay this year, including reaching his first Masters 1000 final in Monte-Carlo a few weeks ago, where he was eliminated by Carlos Alcaraz. This time in Madrid, he defeated Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Alex De Minaur (the latter two he had already beaten in Monte-Carlo). Reaching the semifinals would guarantee his first appearance in the top 10.

On the other side is the biggest surprise of the tournament so far: the lucky loser Gabriel Diallo, who entered the main draw after the last-minute absence of Yoshito Nishioka. He benefited from the absence of Carlos Alcaraz in a potential second round and advanced by showing great tennis and overcoming a one-set deficit against Cameron Norrie and Grigor Dimitrov (15th). The 23-year-old Canadian is only world No. 78 and has reached this stage of a Masters 1000 for the first time.