The reasons why Carlos Alcaraz will win in Rotterdam... and what could stop him

Carlos Alcaraz has had a bittersweet start to the 2025 season. He showed a solid level of play against opponents he was expected to beat in the early rounds of the Australian Open. However, when he faced his first real test, he crumbled under pressure. A physically struggling Novak Djokovic outplayed him both mentally and in terms of tennis.

Unlike in recent years, Carlitos will not be playing the South American clay-court swing. The Spaniard has opted to stay in Europe to compete in the ABN AMRO Open in Rotterdam, a tournament he has never played before. He will be the top seed following Jannik Sinner’s withdrawal after successfully defending his title at the first Grand Slam of the year.

This is the main reason why Alcaraz is now the favourite to win. Sinner won the event last year and was a finalist in 2023, but the three previous champions will be competing, posing serious challenges for the Spaniard. Daniil Medvedev, the 2023 champion, Felix Auger-Aliassime, who won in 2022, and Andrey Rublev, the 2021 winner, are all in the draw. Additionally, the 2021 runner-up, Stefanos Tsitsipas, has requested a last-minute wildcard, making the competition even tougher.

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However, none of these players are currently at their best, while Alcaraz showed in Australia that he is clearly ahead of this group. The rest of the field includes high-level players like Alex de Minaur and Holger Rune, but in theory, they are not at the same level as the four-time Grand Slam champion.

Reasons why Alcaraz might NOT win the title in Rotterdam

The first reason to doubt Carlos' chances of lifting the trophy in Rotterdam is that the tournament is played indoors. It’s well known that these conditions do not favour the World No. 3’s game. Not only has he failed to win any of his 16 ATP titles on indoor courts, but he has also never even reached a final on this surface. His struggles in major events like the Paris Masters and the ATP Finals are well documented.

Additionally, as always, his mental state remains a factor. His game is heavily based on aggression and joy, and when he doesn’t feel comfortable with his shots or isn't enjoying himself on court, it directly impacts his results. In a best-of-three format, he doesn’t have as much room to recover as he would in a Grand Slam tournament.

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