ANALYSIS | Carlos Alcaraz's possible path to his third Indian Wells crown

Carlos Alcaraz arrives at Indian Wells 2025 as the reigning two-time champion and big favorite for the title. Even more so when Alexander Zverev, number 2 in the ranking, was eliminated in the first round, leaving the player from Murcia as the best pre-qualifier of the tournament. Below we review how he could be on his way to lift the trophy in California for the third consecutive time.

The Indian Wells ATP 1000 is already underway and in only three days of competition, the tournament has registered several surprises. On the women's side, former world No. 1 Naomi Osaka fell unceremoniously to the surprising Camila Osorio, who played excellent tennis, beating her opponent 6-4, 6-4.

Undoubtedly, the real big surprise would come on Friday 7th, when the number 2 in the world ranking, Alexander Zverev, making his debut in this edition of the tournament, would end up losing to the Dutchman Tallon Griekspoor in a dramatic battle that lasted more than 3 hours. In the end, Griekspoor would end up winning 4-6, 7-6(5), 7-6(4), leaving the top of the main draw open.

Second Round

As for Alcaraz, he will still have to wait for his debut, which will be next Saturday, March 8. Frenchman Quentin Halys will be his first opponent, after having left another Spaniard in the first round, Pablo Carreño.

Halys is coming from the semifinals in Dubai, where he lost in 3 sets against Felix Auger-Aliassime. With his 1,91 m height, the Frenchman has in his arsenal a powerful serve that could complicate the Murcian if he is on a good day. This will be the first meeting between the two.

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Third Round

In the third round Carlitos would face the winner of the match between the Australian Adam Walton (coming from the qualifying round) and the number 27, Denis Shapovalov.

The Canadian is another player who has been rising in this 2025. Last week he reached the semifinals of the Abierto Mexicano Acapulco, where he would eventually lose to Davidovich by double 7-6. Two weeks before 'Shapo' had been finalist of the Dallas Open, losing in that occasion against the number 5, Casper Ruud;

There is only one previous clash between the two players and it happened in the third round of Roland Garros 2023. Alcaraz dominated his rival and won 6-1, 6-4, 6-2.

Round of 16

Should Carlitos reach the round of 16 at Indian Wells, his most likely opponents would be Grigor Dimitrov or the local Sebastian Korda. The eternal Gael Monfils could also appear in his place. Against all of them, Alcaraz has a positive winning record, being the Bulgarian the most dangerous opponent, both in terms of ranking and playing style.

Dimitrov arrives at Tennis Paradise looking for continuity in this 2025, as 3 of his defeats in this campaign are because he had to withdraw due to physical problems.

Quarterfinals

In the quarterfinals, the name that stands out without any doubt on the Murcian's side of the draw is Novak Djokovic. The duel would be a rematch of the quarterfinals of the Australian Open. There, Alcaraz came up against a highly motivated Djokovic who managed to decipher the game of the current Wimbledon champion. In that match, the 21-year-old took too many risks and made too many mistakes against a Novak who gave nothing away.

The Serb leads in the history between the two 5-3, and has defeated the Spaniard in their last two meetings. He is -on paper- the biggest threat to the three-time championship aspirations. However, Djokovic has not won a title in more than a year, with the exception of the gold medal at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. At 37, Nole is in the final phase of his career, trying to find the balance between playing rhythm, rest and preparation. After his injury in the Australian semis, Novak would only play Qatar, being eliminated in the first round.

Alex de Minaur, Hubert Hurkacz and Fran Cerúndolo are also in that part of the draw.

Djokovic at the last Australian Open

Semifinals

A possible clash against Taylor Fritz emerges as the most likely matchup if we only take into account the ranking. Fritz comes from an excellent season in 2024, reaching the final of the US Open and later the decisive match of the ATP Finals. In both cases he would lose to Jannik Sinner, but his performance would make him climb up the rankings;

Currently, Fritz is in fourth position, struggling to regain the level shown. In 2025 he won the United Cup with the U.S. team, but since then he has struggled to reach the decisive stages in recent tournaments;

Alcaraz dominates the history against Fritz 2-0, their last meeting being last year in the Laver Cup.

Final

As we mentioned before, the premature defeat of Alexander Zverev has left the top of the draw completely open, being a great opportunity for other players to show what they are made of.

The rising Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (30) and his phenomenal serve could find in this edition of Indian Wells his moment to shine. However, Americans Tommy Paul (11), Ben Shelton (13) and Frances Tiafoe (17) could take courage having the crowd on their side and earn their place in the title match.

Casper Ruud, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev also come from the same part of the draw and it would not be a surprise if they return to their best form to get into the deciding match;

Medvedev is not going through his best moment, accumulating several defeats in early instances. The Russian has been the one who disputed the title to Alcaraz in 2023 and 2024. On both occasions, the player from Murcia did not concede a single set to win. The history between the Europeans has a marked tendency in favor of Carlitos, who leads 6-2 in head to head matches.

After two very tough days for the Spaniards at Indian Wells - with only Carlos Alcaraz left alive - fans will be following the young star's every step even more closely as he tries to reach the depths of the tournament;

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