ANALYSIS | Jannik Sinner enters the final stretch of his suspension, is he the one to beat at Roland Garros?

World No. 1 Jannik Sinner has been absent from competition since his triumphant victory at the Australian Open earlier this season. The Italian has been serving a 90-day suspension following an agreement with the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA). With two months of action unfolding in his absence, speculation is mounting over how Sinner will perform upon his return and whether he can secure his first Roland Garros title in 2025.

Since making his breakthrough last season by claiming the Australian Open crown, Sinner has consistently evolved in both his game and results. After ascending to the world No. 1 ranking, he continued his rise in 2024 by clinching the US Open with remarkable ease. Known for his formidable power from both wings, the Italian has established himself as a dominant force on hard courts. Since his loss to Carlos Alcaraz in the China Open final, Sinner has remained unbeaten on the surface.

Defending his Australian Open title in dominant fashion, Sinner once again proved himself to be the best player in the tournament by a significant margin. However, his momentum was halted when he was handed a 90-day suspension, sidelining him from competition. He is expected to make his comeback just days before the Rome Masters, an event that will serve as his primary preparation for Roland Garros.

This forced hiatus comes at a crucial moment in Sinner's career. For the first time since childhood, he has had the opportunity to step back, reflect on his journey, and recalibrate for the season ahead. However, despite his absence, his main competitors have failed to capitalize on the opportunity to close the gap in the rankings.

World No. 2 Alexander Zverev struggled to maintain his Melbourne form, falling short of expectations when he had the chance to gain significant ground on the three-time Grand Slam champion. Meanwhile, Carlos Alcaraz, widely considered Sinner’s primary rival for dominance in the coming years, secured an ATP 500 title in Rotterdam but suffered early exits in Indian Wells and Miami at the hands of Jack Draper and David Goffin, respectively. Nonetheless, Alcaraz remains a major threat, having defeated Sinner on multiple occasions since the Italian's ascent to Grand Slam success.

Novak Djokovic, despite experiencing health setbacks, demonstrated his enduring competitiveness by reaching the Miami Open final. However, at 38 years old, the grueling demands of Roland Garros could pose a significant challenge if he encounters a difficult draw.

In many ways, it seems that Sinner’s rivals have played in his favor during his absence, raising the question of whether his extended break—combined with his commanding lead—could ultimately disrupt his rhythm and hinder his quest for the French Open title, one of two Grand Slams missing from his collection.

Historically, Sinner’s success has been concentrated on faster courts, with his clay and grass results trailing behind. This is not to say that the ATP Finals champion lacks the ability to excel on clay, but his 2024 campaign so far has been notably devoid of titles on the surface.

Last season, after triumphing at the Miami Open, Sinner transitioned to clay, competing in the Monte Carlo Masters, where he reached the semifinals before being edged out by Stefanos Tsitsipas, the eventual champion. In Madrid, he was forced to withdraw in the quarterfinals due to injury. Despite these setbacks, he entered Roland Garros as one of the top contenders.

In Paris, Sinner was formidable, advancing through the rounds without dropping a set until a tough fourth-round battle against Corentin Moutet. In the semifinals, he faced an inspired Carlos Alcaraz, who edged out the Italian in a grueling five-set showdown (2-6, 6-3, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3). The loss denied Sinner the opportunity to claim his first clay-court title of the season, and his disappointment was compounded when it was later announced that he would miss the Paris Olympics, which was to be held on clay for the first time in years.

Nearly a year later, the reigning Australian Open champion is preparing for his return. Given his competitive nature, it is expected that he will give everything in Rome, his home Masters 1000 event and a critical test before Roland Garros.

The Rome Masters will be Sinner’s only clay-court event leading into Roland Garros, making it a crucial test for his form and fitness. There is a possibility that he may struggle with match rhythm, but on the flip side, he will enter fresh and well-rested. Clay, a surface that neutralizes some of his biggest weapons—particularly his powerful serve—will challenge him to rely more on his consistency and tactical adaptability. His deep, aggressive groundstrokes and ability to win extended rallies, however, should keep him in contention as one of the favorites.

Despite his world No. 1 status, Sinner has only one clay-court title to his name—Umag 2022. This lack of major success on the surface leaves room for emerging threats such as Joao Fonseca, Learner Tien, and Jakub Mensik to pose new challenges in the coming years. To maximize his chances in Paris, Sinner must use every available moment before his suspension ends to regain sharpness and match fitness.

After falling short in 2024, Jannik Sinner will once again set his sights on conquering Roland Garros. Should he succeed, his dominance could draw comparisons to the peak years of the Big Three—Djokovic, Nadal, and Federer. The tennis world waits with anticipation to see if the Italian can rise to the challenge and complete his Grand Slam collection.

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