Another American in the Top 10? Tommy Paul almost guaranteed a spot in the elite—here’s what would need to happen to keep him out

American No. 2 Tommy Paul is on the brink of making his debut in the ATP Top 10 after the Australian Open. While he is nearly assured of achieving this milestone, a specific sequence of results involving Ben Shelton and Holger Rune could still prevent it.

The World No. 11 has been knocking on the Top 10’s door for the past two years. Paul hasn’t dropped out of the Top 20 since March 2023, and since July that year, he has consistently stayed in the Top 15. After finishing 2023 ranked World No. 13, 2024 seemed destined to be his breakthrough year.

Will Tommy Paul crack the Top 10?

Paul’s 2024 season included key achievements such as semifinal runs at Indian Wells and Rome Open, along with titles at the Queen’s Club Championships (ATP 500) and the Stockholm Open (ATP 250). His career-high ranking of No. 11 came after a semifinal finish at the Adelaide International two weeks ago, where he lost to Félix Auger-Aliassime.

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Entering the Australian Open with not much points to defend (he reached the third round last year), Paul had an excellent chance to break into the Top 10. However, the live rankings at the tournament’s start showed a razor-thin margin among Stefanos Tsitsipas, Andrey Rublev, Grigor Dimitrov, and Novak Djokovic (ranked 8th to 12th), separated by just 120 points. Notably, Paul was the only one in this group who had never been in the Top 10.

Early exits by Tsitsipas, Dimitrov, and Rublev (all out in the first round) cleared Paul’s path, and he currently sits at World No. 9 in the live rankings. However, his spot is not mathematically secured yet.

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For Paul to guarantee a Top 10 position, he needs to defeat Alexander Zverev and advance to the quarterfinals. If he loses, only one scenario could spoils the party. In this case, fellow American Ben Shelton would need to win the tournament, which would require beating Holger Rune in a hypothetical semifinal.

For this to happen, Rune must eliminate Jannik Sinner in the Round of 16 and then defeat either Michelsen or De Minaur in the quarterfinals. Meanwhile, Shelton would need to overcome Gaël Monfils, Tien/Sonego in the quarterfinals, and Rune in the semifinals, followed by a title victory against one of Zverev, Alcaraz, or Djokovic.

Tommy Paul defeated Christopher O'Connell in five sets on his way to the next rounds, and then it wasn't too difficult for him to beat Kei Nishikori, Robert Carballes Baena, and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. In his latest match against the Spaniard, he barely dropped a game in each set. This time, against world No. 2 Zverev, he'll face his first Top-60 opponent of the tournament.

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