PREVIEW | ATP Madrid Open 2025: As Jannik Sinner's comeback looms, Carlos Alcaraz aims for home glory again

The Mutua Madrid Open 2025 stands once again as one of the most anticipated tournaments on the tennis calendar. This year, the event holds added intrigue as the final major clay-court stop before Roland Garros—and notably, the last major tournament to be played without the world No. 1, Jannik Sinner. With Sinner serving a suspension, the spotlight falls on Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, and Novak Djokovic as they battle for form and prestige in the Spanish capital.

The 2025 edition promises fireworks, with the potential for blockbuster matchups between legends and rising stars from the opening rounds.

On TennisUpToDate, we take a look back at last year’s tournament, catch up with the current form of the key contenders, and preview what lies ahead following the main draw announcement.

Last year’s Madrid Open saw Andrey Rublev capture his first title in Madrid—and his second ATP Masters 1000 trophy—cementing his status as one of the most dangerous forces on clay. The Russian overcame Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime in a gripping three-set final, showcasing his trademark intensity and grit.

Rublev, seeded seventh in 2024, capitalized on a weakened field and stunned local favorite Carlos Alcaraz in a thrilling quarterfinal. In 2025, his campaign could begin against veteran Gaël Monfils or a qualifier, setting the stage for another potentially dramatic run.

Jannik Sinner’s doping suspension, mutually agreed upon shortly after his Australian Open triumph, has reshaped the clay season. With over 80 days passed since that decision, Madrid marks the last chance for the chasing pack to gain ground before Sinner’s return. For the rest of the field, it’s a final test—and opportunity—before Paris.

With Sinner absent, Alexander Zverev enters Madrid as the top seed and newly crowned world No. 2. The German begins his campaign against the winner of the all-Spanish clash between Roberto Bautista Agut and Jaume Munar.

Zverev thrives in the conditions at the Caja Mágica, where the slightly faster clay suits his game. After capturing the Munich title earlier this month with a commanding run, his confidence is peaking. If he clears his opening test, a potential second-round clash with an in-form Alejandro Davidovich Fokina looms, followed by further threats in Francisco Cerúndolo and Arthur Fils.

Once again, the draw aligns Carlos Alcaraz on the same side as Novak Djokovic—just as it did in Melbourne and Indian Wells earlier this season. Alcaraz opens against the winner of Zizou Bergs vs. Yoshihito Nishioka and will be aiming to recapture the magic that saw him lift the Madrid title in both 2022 and 2023.

Fresh from a runner-up finish at the Conde de Godó in Barcelona, Alcaraz arrives in Madrid with some physical concerns, but if fit, the 21-year-old remains the player to beat.

His potential path is packed with talent—Jiri Lehecka in the third round, followed by possible matchups against Tomas Machac, Grigor Dimitrov, Stefanos Tsitsipas, or Alex de Miñaur.

The 24-time Grand Slam champion returns to Madrid seeking redemption after a disappointing early exit last year. Djokovic is still in pursuit of his 100th career title, having fallen short in Miami and suffered a first-round defeat in Monte Carlo.

Seeded fifth, Djokovic faces either Matteo Arnaldi or a qualifier in his opener. His projected path is far from easy, with possible encounters against Sebastian Baez, Ugo Humbert, Frances Tiafoe, and Jack Draper—all physical challenges on clay, especially with the Serb nearing his 38th birthday.

A potential semifinal against Alcaraz adds an extra layer of drama. The head-to-head favors Djokovic (5–3), but it was in Madrid in 2022 where Alcaraz stunned the Serbian in the semis and announced his arrival as a global star.

Despite a shaky start to 2025, Djokovic’s record in Madrid—three titles (2011, 2016, 2019) and several deep runs—makes him a perennial threat. He’ll need to find top form quickly to preserve energy through the grind of clay.

Beyond the headliners, plenty of players are poised to disrupt the script. Holger Rune, Alex de Miñaur, Arthur Fils, and Francisco Cerúndolo have all made strong starts to the clay season. Ben Shelton and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina are wild cards capable of shaking up the draw.

With so much on the line and the absence of the world No. 1, Madrid 2025 is wide open. Will a favorite rise to the occasion, or is another surprise brewing in this already unpredictable season?