Elena Rybakina survives Ons Jabeur clash, but first-serve struggles persist – A weak link in her Grand Slam pursuit?

Elena Rybakina has been firmly established among the best for years. Since breaking into the top 10 in 2023, she has remained a top-5 player for most of that time and is considered a contender at every Grand Slam. However, a key aspect of her game puts her a step behind her biggest rivals.

Rybakina's serve is regarded as one of the most powerful on the Tour. However, her low first-serve percentage often puts her at a disadvantage against opponents known for their strong returns. The Kazakh battled past Tunisia’s Ons Jabeur in the Abu Dhabi Open quarter-finals, but her lack of precision on the first serve almost cost her the match. She ultimately secured the win 6-2, 4-6, 7-6(4).

Rybakina’s service woes: A step behind Swiatek, Sabalenka & Gauff?

So far this season, Rybakina ranks among the 10 players with the lowest first-serve percentage in the top 100, averaging just 55% —the same number she recorded against Jabeur. The Tunisian capitalized on Rybakina’s inconsistencies, breaking her serve three times out of five opportunities, though it wasn’t enough to take the match.

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Rybakina’s poor 55% first-serve percentage falls well below that of her top rivals in major tournaments. Among the current top 10, no other player drops below 60% on first serves. For comparison, Iga Swiatek (No. 2) averages 62%, while Coco Gauff (No. 3) and Emma Navarro (No. 9) both stand at 63%. Other top players, including Aryna Sabalenka (No. 1) and Jessica Pegula (No. 6), reach 66%, while newly crowned Australian Open champion Madison Keys (No. 7) boasts a 67% first-serve success rate.

Rybakina has already struggled against elite returners recently. At the Australian Open, she was defeated by Madison Keys in three sets, managing just a 56% first-serve percentage—far below her opponent’s 70%. At the WTA Finals, she suffered losses to other strong returners, Jasmine Paolini and Zheng Qinwen, recording first-serve percentages of just 56% and 58%, respectively—again trailing behind her opponents.

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Even her previous loss at the Cincinnati Open against Leylah Fernandez, a player with a vulnerable serve but excellent ability to seize opportunities, saw Rybakina land only 47% of her first serves, leading to six breaks—an error that proved costly.

The former Wimbledon champion is aiming to move past an inconsistent season, both physically and in terms of coaching, following the recent departure of Goran Ivanisevic after just one month together. Without a doubt, improving her first serve will be crucial for Rybakina to challenge the dominance of rivals like Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka, and Coco Gauff, who seem to have pulled a step ahead of her.

Statistics provided and as per TennisStats.

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