The 2024 Paris Olympics women's final is set, and it will be between Qinwen Zheng of China and
Donna Vekic of Croatia. This unexpected final promises to be a fascinating showdown. Let's delve into how this surprising turn of events might shape up.
Before the Olympics even began, most people were set on which players we would likely see in the final. For one, it was Iga Swiatek across the board because the Polish player has been incredible on those courts, winning 31 of the last 32 matches she had played on them.
Swiatek was the top seed, the number one in the world, with 4 Roland Garros trophies in her cabinet, so it was normal to assume that she would find herself in the final.From the rest of the field, Coco Gauff had the strongest results in Paris.
She's generally a very talented clay player due to her speed and skill set, and she has stood in a Roland Garros final before. It was a losing effort a few years ago, but winning the doubles trophy this year certainly proved that she hadn't forgotten how to play well in Paris. None of them made the final, but two other players did.
Donna Vekic and Qinwen Zheng are in the final, which is a testament to their resilience and determination, so let's look at how it happened.
Vekic's dream run continues
Donna Vekic was touted years ago as a super-talented player capable of doing many great things. A hard-hitting baseliner by trait, the Croatian entered the Top 100 many years ago in 2013 at only 17 years old. She was expected to do many great things because she had a modern game that suited all types of courts.
The transition to the pros was a bit rough as it took her several years to really establish herself as a notable player.Injuries played a factor, and they're still a huge factor because she's never really gotten rid of them. When you look at the number of matches she's played, they're not particularly high numbers, especially from 2017 onwards.
It's gotten better in recent years, which coincided with her rise. Her best momentum came just ahead of the pandemic, which further halted what might have been a breakthrough a few years ago.It's finally happening for her, though, with her level growing in recent weeks. Vekic has looked really solid this year, but it didn't pick up until the grass season.
Donna Vekic: a feel good story of never giving up.
A final in Bad Homburg was followed by a semi-final at Wimbledon and a final here at the Olympics. Despite some heartbreaking losses, she's demonstrated a lot of resilience these past weeks. The run here saw her oust Coco Gauff, and she followed it up with more great wins to find herself in a deserved final. It's just been the culmination of a superb month of tennis, which will be concluded with a medal. We just don't know the colour of it.
Zheng's ascension to superstardom
Much like her rival in the final, Qinwen Zheng found herself in the final of the Olympics thanks to a win over a huge favourite. Vekic ousted 2nd favourite Coco Gauff en route to the final, and Zheng ousted the top favourite Iga Swiatek, and what a match it was by the Chinese player. It was a match where she showed superb calmness in a big moment when the more experienced player lost her cool. Swiatek lost the match largely because she was incredibly nervous and never managed to control her baseline game. She had too many errors as opposed to Zheng, who kept a really high level the entire match.
Zheng applied heavy pressure with her strong baseline game and remained calm, limiting the number of errors she made. In fact, the numbers are stark: Swiatek had 13 winners and 36 unforced errors, while Zheng had 15 winners and only 13 unforced errors, which paints a very clear picture. Oddly enough, this sort of outcome was foreshadowed a couple of years ago.
In 2022, a teenage Zheng faced Iga Swiatek in the 4th round of Roland Garros, causing her a lot of trouble. It was the most complicated match for Swiatek in that title-winning campaign as she dropped a set before storming back to a win. The score in that one was 6-7(5) 6-0 6-2, which also paints a clear picture of what happened.
Asian Games winner, now Olympic Games gold medalist?
Fast forward to now, and Zheng won 6-2, 7-5. The match was closer than that score implies because Swiatek was up 4-0 in the 2nd set, but the fact that Zheng came back to win that match in two sets shows just how mentally strong she is.It's been a long time coming because, before this event, Zheng was already in the top 10. She stood in the Australian Open final, so winning matches at the highest level was nothing new to her.
Beating Swiatek in such a way is arguably the biggest match of her career, and on this court, it is certainly something notable, and it's why she's the favourite to win the gold medal for the country. Will it happen, though? Well, let's take a closer look at the matchup.
First Time Glory
Whoever wins the gold medal will be a first-time winner. It's a huge moment for both Vekic and Zheng because it's by far the biggest match for both of them. Zheng stood in the Australian Open final earlier this year, but knowing how patriotic Chinese players are, the gold medal at the Olympics would arguably be the biggest thing she can do in her tennis career. Vekic doesn't have a lot of trophies in her cabinet, so the final is hugely important for her as well. As noted above, it's the biggest match for both of them, so let's see what might happen.
Right off the bat, it has to be said that Zheng has been the better player overall, both this year and in their careers overall. Vekic's potential is huge, but she's never been able to really hit it, so this is the best we've seen her play. That makes her dangerous, and Zheng knows that well because she lost her first match against Vekic in 2021. It happened a while ago, and she's dramatically improved since then, which is best highlighted by the 2nd match they ever played at the WTA Elite Trophy last year.
Zheng won that match, but it was a close 3-set match, and it was played in China. Despite all of that, Vekic could keep it close, and I expect something similar in this one. There are some concerns about Vekic's fatigue as she appeared to struggle a bit in a couple of her matches, but she won her semi-final easily, and there is a rest day between the semi-final and final. With everything that's on the line, I expect her to toughen it out, fatigue or not.
Zheng is generally the more impressive player physically as she never appears tired and has looked really strong throughout her career. The skill sets are comparable because both have good serve, although Zheng has notable inconsistencies with her serve. The baseline play is good for both players, with Vekic possessing overwhelming power while Zheng holds more precision.
Based on everything we've seen, it's a matchup that, on paper, promises to be very close. They are playing on a similar level and have a lot of confidence, though the ceiling appears to be higher for the Chinese player. Clay, as a surface, seems to favour Zheng a bit better, who holds an 80-24 record. Vekic is by no means bad on it, but her best results have generally come on other surfaces, and her clay record is only 66-57 so far.
That is why Zheng is an overwhelming favourite according to experts and bookies. If this event has proven anything though, it doesn't matter that much. How you perform during the match matters most, and Vekic has had a unique ability in recent weeks to really dig deep and win matches she shouldn't have won.
Zheng has had a history of losing matches she should have won, but we've seen her do really well this year. The stakes will be high, nervousness will present with both, and the crowd will be electric. Expect a really competitive match, probably in three sets, but everything we've seen from and everything we know from both indicates that, ultimately, the likely winner will be Qinwen Zheng.
She's had a tremendous year and has been doing this for a very long time. She is generally the more comfortable player on clay. There was a ruthlessness in the way she beat Swiatek, and I don't think Vekic will be able to find a cure for that.
