Preview WTA Miami Open Final: Aryna Sabalenka’s masterclass faces final test against Jessica Pegula

The finalists of the 2025 Miami Open will be World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and World No. 4 Jessica Pegula, in a clash that promises a tough battle for both as they seek their first WTA 1000 title of the season.

Sabalenka has been flawless in the tournament, not dropping a single set, and comes into the final after defeating Jasmine Paolini 6-2, 6-2. On the other hand, the 30-year-old home favourite survived a surprising challenge from Alexandra Eala, winning 7-6(3), 5-7, 6-3.

The Belarusian has had an outstanding 2025 season so far, boasting 22 wins and just four losses, along with a WTA 500 title at the Brisbane International. The World No. 1 rebounded this week from a painful defeat in the Indian Wells final against Mirra Andreeva, advancing through the Miami Open without dropping a single set.

Sabalenka has faced little resistance on her path to the final. She defeated Viktoriya Tomova (No. 64) – 6-3, 6-0; Elena Gabriela Ruse (No. 102) – 6-1, ret.; defending champion Danielle Collins (No. 15) – 6-4, 6-4; Olympic gold medallist Zheng Qinwen (No. 9) – 6-2, 7-5; and World No. 6 Jasmine Paolini – 6-2, 6-2. Not only has she remained undefeated in sets, but she has conceded just 2.6 games per set, securing 22 breaks while being broken only seven times.

The three-time Grand Slam champion has now reached her 12th WTA 1000 final (7-4 record so far) and will be aiming for the 19th title of her career. Her strong performance in the Sunshine Double has solidified her No. 1 ranking, with a comfortable lead of over 2,600 points ahead of Iga Swiatek in second place, ensuring her stay at the top for at least the next few months.

World No. 4 Jessica Pegula is no stranger to the latter stages of major tournaments, reaching her sixth WTA 1000 final with a 3-2 record in previous championship matches. She has amassed 85 career wins at this level and now seeks redemption against Aryna Sabalenka, who defeated her in the 2024 US Open final.

Pegula reached the final without facing a single top-20 opponent, but her path was still filled with notable challenges. She started by defeating Bernarda Pera (No. 84) 6-4, 6-4, then outlasted a resilient Anna Kalinskaya (No. 33) in a tough battle, 6-7(3), 6-2, 7-6(2). In the fourth round, she comfortably beat Ukrainian Marta Kostyuk (No. 29) 6-2, 6-3.

Her quarterfinal saw her edge the former US Open champion Emma Raducanu, 6-4, 6-7, 6-2, before surviving a major test against 19-year-old Alexandra Eala (No. 140) in the semifinals, winning 7-6, 5-7, 6-3. Eala had stunned two top-5 players, Madison Keys and Iga Swiatek, earlier in the tournament.

Pegula holds a strong 20-5 record this season and recently captured the ATX Open title earlier this month. If she wins in Miami, it will mark the first time since 2001-2002 that two different American women claim back-to-back Miami Open titles, following Danielle Collins’ victory last year. The last duo to achieve this feat was Venus Williams (2001) and Serena Williams (2002).

Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula have faced each other eight times, with the Belarusian holding a commanding 6-2 lead. Their most recent encounters were in the finals of the 2024 Cincinnati Open and US Open, both won by Sabalenka.

The three-time Grand Slam champion enters the final as the clear favourite, having dominated her opponents throughout the tournament without dropping a set. In contrast, Pegula has endured several tough battles on her way to the final.

Sabalenka has historically controlled their matchups, especially when her serve is firing, making her a formidable opponent. However, home-court advantage could play in Pegula’s favour, as she aims to pull off an upset—similar to what Sabalenka experienced in her recent finals at the Australian Open and Indian Wells, where she was the favourite but fell short.