ANALYSIS: Four players to watch closely at the Madrid Open 2025 - Two top ten players in danger?

The European clay-court swing picks up pace with the second ATP Masters 1000 event on the surface — the Mutua Madrid Open. As the red dirt action intensifies, stars like Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev have already made their mark this spring, but emerging names such as Holger Rune and Ben Shelton are quickly positioning themselves as serious threats to the established elite.

Zverev, currently ranked world No. 3, arrives in Madrid fresh off his victory at the 2025 BMW Open in Munich, adding to the momentum generated by Alcaraz’s title run in Monte Carlo — a triumph that also saw the Spaniard leapfrog the German to reclaim the No. 2 spot in the rankings. The top-tier contenders are showing fine form, setting the stage for a competitive clay-court stretch leading into Roland Garros.

Yet beyond the spotlight of the top seeds, several players are building compelling narratives of their own, showcasing form that could disrupt the hierarchy.

Ben Shelton is making waves in a part of the season historically unkind to American players. After a sluggish start to 2025, including a disappointing first-round exit in Miami and a loss to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in Monte Carlo, Shelton has turned things around in impressive fashion.

The 22-year-old reached the final in Munich — his first on clay — defeating noted clay-courter Francisco Cerúndolo along the way. Though he fell short against Zverev, Shelton’s powerful game and growing comfort on the surface suggest he is no longer a novelty on clay, but a genuine contender.

With his Munich run, Shelton became the first American to reach a clay-court final since Andre Agassi — a testament to his rapid adaptation and competitive fire.

Arthur Fils continues to impress in what is shaping up to be a breakthrough season for the young Frenchman. A quarterfinal run in Miami carried into strong results on clay, with a semifinal showing in Barcelona and a solid Monte Carlo campaign, where he pushed Alcaraz to three sets.

While the Spaniard bested him again in Barcelona, Fils showed he can go toe-to-toe with the best. The world No. 14 blends raw power with smart court coverage, and he enters Madrid as one of the more dangerous floaters in the draw.

Holger Rune has been quietly building momentum and now looks primed to be a major factor this clay season. After reaching the final in Indian Wells (falling to Jack Draper), the Dane suffered setbacks in Miami and Monte Carlo, including a mid-tournament withdrawal. But he roared back in Barcelona, toppling Carlos Alcaraz en route to the title.

Rune, already a two-time champion in Munich, now adds the prestigious Conde de Godó Trophy to his collection. With Jannik Sinner out of action, Rune’s win over Alcaraz carries added weight — a statement that he’s ready to lead the charge on clay.

After Alcaraz, the Spanish hopes fall to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who’s enjoying one of his most consistent seasons yet. Now inside the Top 30, the 25-year-old has compiled an impressive 20–10 record and reached finals in Delray Beach and Acapulco.

He followed that up with a semifinal run in Monte Carlo, knocking out Shelton and Draper in thrilling matches before bowing out to Alcaraz. In Barcelona, he took down veterans like Stan Wawrinka and upset seventh seed Andrey Rublev before Karen Khachanov ended his run in the quarterfinals.

Davidovich’s aggressive baseline game and mental tenacity make him a dangerous opponent on any clay court.

Not all top names are thriving. Casper Ruud, the 2024 Conde de Godó champion, is experiencing a dip in form. Since finishing runner-up in Dallas, the Norwegian has endured early exits and is now slipping in the rankings. With significant points to defend from last year’s strong clay run — including a Monte Carlo final and a title in Barcelona — Ruud faces mounting pressure.

Madrid offers a chance for redemption, as he only has a Round of 16 finish to defend. A deep run here could stabilize his season ahead of Roland Garros.

Andrey Rublev is another big name facing uncertainty. Despite starting the year with a title in Doha and recently teaming up with former world No. 1 Marat Safin as his new coach, Rublev has struggled to maintain form. Ranked No. 8, the Russian is at risk of further ranking drops if results don’t improve soon.

The biggest question mark heading into Madrid is world No. 5 Novak Djokovic. The Serb made a surprising early exit in his clay-court debut, losing to Chilean Alejandro Tábilo. With concerns over physical conditioning and a lack of match play, Djokovic will look to Madrid as a crucial step in ramping up for Roland Garros.

Having reached the semifinals at the Australian Open and the final in Miami, Djokovic’s ranking remains intact for now. But if he hopes to challenge for major titles this spring, he’ll need to build form quickly — starting with a strong showing in the Spanish capital.