ANALYSIS: Jannik Sinner's Indian Wells absence opens a door for Carlos Alcaraz

The ATP and WTA 1000 tournament season begins with the Indian Wells 2025 Tournament. The Californian event brings together the top stars of men's and women's tennis, marking the start of the tour of the United States. The men's draw will be without top-ranked Jannik Sinner, who is serving a doping suspension. Carlos Alcaraz is emerging as the favorite to defend his title.

Jannik Sinner has been the best player on fast courts for more than a year. In 2024, he started to win Grand Slams with the Australian Open and became number 1 in the ranking;

However, from Indian Wells to Wimbledon, the figure of Carlos Alcaraz emerged as the Italian's natural rival. Both players proved to be a step above the rest. Carlitos would be practically the only player capable of standing up to Sinner, with the exception of Medvedev at Wimbledon.

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Sinner continued to develop his game and for the US Open showed his most dominant facet seen so far. The early elimination of Alcaraz was a perfect fit for the world No. 1, who only dropped one set on his way to becoming the new king of Flushing Meadows.

After dividing the 4 majors in 2 per side, Alcaraz would beat Sinner once again in a true great match at the China Open. It was their last duel so far and the last official match in which the Italian would be defeated. The duel deeply marked the number 1, who would win the ATP Finals and the Davis Cup to close a huge season showing himself more and more dominant.

By the time the 2025 Australian Open began, Sinner was under pressure to prove to everyone that what happened last season was no accident. And he took it seriously: he would only lose one set to retain his title in Melbourne (against Holger Rune in the round of 16). The Italian was superior to all his opponents and in many cases by a wide margin.

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Of course, Alcaraz's loss to Djokovic in the quarterfinals left us all wondering how the Spanish tennis star would have fared if it was his turn to be Sinner's opponent. But if one goes by the Italian's numbers, the reality is that today he is even better than the Spaniard.

It is the first time that a world number 1 is forced to watch the competition on television. A number 1 who has long been the real rival to beat. This opens a range of opportunities for Alcaraz himself, who arrives as defending champion and will have many points to defend;

Who are the most dangerous rivals for Alcaraz's aspirations?

The main opponent Alcaraz will have to overcome is himself. The fluctuations in the effectiveness of his serve show that he is working to incorporate another resource to his arsenal but it can be a complication if he is not accurate. Another aspect of his game to pay attention to is his risk taking. His spectacular nature often leads him to look for the lines, when he has the strokes to do damage by decreasing the margin of error. Overcoming these two obstacles, the Murcian is the top favorite.

Alexander Zverev has been playing very well for several months and remains as number 2. He defeated Alcaraz in the ATP Finals and reached the final in Australia. However, the German did not have the best performance in his Latin American tour. In Argentina he lost in quarterfinals against Fran Cerúndolo (26). In Rio he lost to Francisco Comensaña (66) and in Mexico it was Learner Tien (83).

It is true that these tournaments were on clay and that Zverev takes a lot of advantage with his powerful serve on hard court. His 6-5 positive record against Alcaraz makes him one of the biggest threats.

Novak Djokovic returns to competition after the Qatar Open. The Serb is another potential threat to Alcaraz's aspirations in California. However, Novak has been accumulating some early eliminations in recent times. The main draws are starting to be a problem to preserve his physique, since he has to face complicated opponents from the early stages. Despite eliminating the Murcian in Melbourne, the effort he made was so great that he ended up injuring himself. The winner of 24 Grand Slams will depend a little on his luck in the draw.

Andrey Rublev has improved a lot and arrives as the new Qatar Open champion. The Russian seems to have left his instability behind and the fruits are starting to show. He could be a threat.

Daniil Medvedev is one of those who comes due in this 2025. Last week he showed signs of improvement, reaching the quarters in Dubai. Prior to that the former world No. 1 had gone home early from all the tournaments he participated in, including the first Grand Slam of the year, where he would be defeated by young American Learner Tien in the second round of the tournament.

Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton and Tommy Paul have been making steady progress in the last year. Fritz has been the most inconsistent so far, something that could motivate him to give it his all at the Fifth Slam. Tommy Paul reached the top 10 for the first time in his career after reaching the quarterfinals in Australia. Ben Shelton would go even further and get into the top four of the tournament. All of them will also have the home crowd on their side.

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Finally, the Australian Alex de Minaur deserves a mention among the possible entertainers of the tournament. The current number 10 in the ranking has started the season in a very good way, making the quarterfinals at home at the Australian Open (although he was beaten by Sinner in that instance). Despite this, de Miñaur continues to grow steadily since 2024, and against Alcaraz in the Rotterdam final there were times when the Spaniard struggled against his attacks.

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