ANALYSIS | What movements in the rankings can we expect in the coming season on clay?

With the conclusion of the Sunshine Double, the Tour is set to return to Europe in the coming weeks to kick off the clay-court season. This year's tour could be fertile ground for us to see some adjustments in the rankings and why not, more surprises.

The Sunshine Double 2025 has come to an end, which means that the competition season is now through the first quarter of the year. Jack Draper and Jakub Mensik have emerged as winners and will travel to the next tournaments with "lighter" baggage, as they have the peace of mind of having earned a large amount of points that will allow them - at the very least - to maintain their position in the ranking.

Based on the analysis of the players' performances during the 2024 clay season, we will be reviewing which players are most likely to score points and move up in the top and which ones might have their hours numbered.

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What's coming up on clay?

Historically, the clay tour has always given rise to some surprises. The terrain lends itself for "specialists" to take advantage of the slower ball speed and the high groundstrokes to play longer exchanges and not so many quick points. Even serve winners are always reduced compared to other surfaces.

That is why many players who base their game on their power and ball speed may experience some difficulties in winning matches.

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What can be expected regarding the ATP ranking?

Since Jannik Sinner took control at the top of the rankings, the Italian has had virtually no threat of losing the No. 1 ranking. The doping suspension could have had some risk because of the inactivity that would sideline him from being able to defend the title in Miami. However, the results were on his side:

Alexander Zverev, number 2 in the ranking, had some mathematical chances to displace Sinner, but the German could not sustain the level shown in Australia, adding several disappointing defeats, some even in the first rounds of the tournaments.

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Carlos Alcaraz, current number 3, arrived at Indian Wells ready to win his third consecutive title. However, he met a brilliant Jack Draper in the semifinals and had no chance of defending the crown.

He could have scored good points in Miami, but the Spaniard was unable to get past the first round and bowed out in his debut in Florida.

Both Zverev and Alcaraz were finalists at Roland Garros 2024 and emerge as solid candidates to take it all on the 2025 tour. Once the Italian makes his return and depending on his form, what is quite certain is that the top 3 ranking will hardly suffer modifications given the abilities of the three players on clay.

Taylor Fritz (number 4) and Casper Ruud (number 5) could be in trouble. The American has concluded a good campaign in Miami, losing to Jakub Mensik in the semifinals. However, like most Americans, the clay court is not a good place for them, so it would be difficult to see him scoring important points in this section.

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Novak Djokovic, current number 5 in the rankings, arrives with great confidence after the Miami final. The Serb arrives at the European spring without the obligation to defend many points but knowing that at almost 38 years old, clay is a surface that has no mercy. His choice of the tournaments he will play will be key to arrive in the best way to Roland Garros. Novak has already made it clear that his motivation today is to compete in the biggest tournaments, so the fluctuations in the ranking are of no concern to him, even more so with the points obtained in Florida.

Casper Ruud (6) has just lost in the round of 16 in Miami against Cerúndolo, and in the first round against Marcos Girón. The Norwegian needs to raise his level and comes to a part of the season in which he defends important points in Estoril (SF); Monte Carlo (F); Barcelona (Champion), Genoa (Champion) and Roland Garros (SF).

Clay is the surface that favors him the most, but considering his current level, Ruud could be too compromised by his excellent previous season and drop points, falling in the ranking.

The number 7 of the ranking, Jack Draper, comes from being champion in Indian Wells and getting for the first time among the top 10 players in the world. Facing tournaments on clay, the British player knows that this is not where he feels more comfortable, but considering the way he has been playing and especially the effect he is achieving with his forehand, he may be facing a good opportunity to score some points and climb positions.

Daniil Medvedev has suffered a significant drop in the rankings in recent times, as a consequence of a more than prolonged drought of titles and also of prominence in the most important tournaments. The former world No. 1 has not the best relationship with the clay courts so he could continue his free fall, even outside the top 10.

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Andrey Rublev recently announced the signing of former world No. 1 and winner of 2 Grand Slam titles, Marat Safin. The Russian, currently ranked No. 9 in the world, has had mixed results so far this season. Looking ahead, Rublev defends important points only in Madrid, where he reached the semis in 2024.

Finally, Stefanos Tsitsipas closes the top 10 thanks to his coronation in Dubai. The Greek is one of the best players on clay so he is preparing for his favorite part of the year. Of course, he is defending his Monte Carlo title, Barcelona final and Roland Garros quarterfinals; so he will have to maintain his level if he does not want to lose ground on the rest of the pack.

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Possible surprises

By now the name Joao Fonseca, Learner Tien and now Jakub Mensik should sound familiar to all tennis fans. The talented youngsters have stormed into 2025 taking the Tour by storm.

Fonseca already has one ATP 250 title, the Argentina Open 2025. The Brazilian has a missile on his forehand and like all South Americans is very used to playing on clay.

Learner Tien has a junior title at Roland Garros, making him one of the few Americans who could be a threat on clay.

Jakub Mensik, newly crowned Miami champion, is a player who has proven his worth on fast courts but has a tennis that could translate very well to clay. To cross with any of them would be to ensure a long and disputed match.

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