Preview Monte Carlo Masters: No Sinner, no Fritz – Zverev and Alcaraz lead the field

The first Masters 1000 tournament on clay courts is approaching, marking the beginning of a new stage in the ATP’s busy schedule. Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz emerge as early favourites, although neither arrives with full confidence.

The tournament will feature most of the current top stars, but a few key names will be missing — most notably Italy’s Jannik Sinner, who will complete his second month out this week. Additionally, the American No. 1 and No. 2 – Taylor Fritz and Tommy Paul – have both withdrawn.

This first major clay-court tournament feels more open than recent Masters 1000 events like Indian Wells and the Miami Open. Not only due to the high-profile absences, but also because of the shaky current form of the top-ranked players. It could be an ideal scenario for redemption, although the lack of rhythm on clay might lead to some surprises.

Top seed Alexander Zverev has gone 6–5 since reaching the Australian Open final. He’s the only top-10 player who has played on clay this year, taking part in February’s Golden Swing, but was eliminated in the quarterfinals in both Buenos Aires (by Francisco Cerúndolo) and Rio (by Francisco Comesaña). His best Monte Carlo results were semifinals in 2018 — loss to Kei Nishikori — and 2022 (loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas). He could face Matteo Berrettini in his opener if the Italian overcomes a qualifier, a tough potential start for the No. 1 seed.

In the bottom half of the draw sits Carlos Alcaraz, who didn’t get much luck either. The World No. 3 awaits the winner between wild card Fabio Fognini and clay specialist Francisco Cerúndolo, who is full of confidence after reaching the quarterfinals at both Indian Wells and the Miami Open, and currently ranks in the top 15 of the Race.

Alcaraz missed last year’s Monte Carlo due to injury, so it’s a great chance for him to gain points and begin closing the gap with Zverev, especially as Alcaraz will have many points to defend during the clay swing, including the French Open title.

Novak Djokovic returns to the court as the third seed, but he didn’t get an easy draw either. He awaits the winner between wildcard Stan Wawrinka and Chile’s Alejandro Tabilo — the same player who stunned him a year ago in the Italian Open, deepening the Serb’s slump. Still, Djokovic showed strong form in Miami by reaching the final without dropping a set, though he ultimately lost the title to an impressive Jakub Mensik.

Also to be considered among the favourites is defending champion Stefanos Tsitsipas, who has won the Monte Carlo title three times — equalling three other players in history (Nastase, Borg and Muster), and only behind Rafael Nadal’s incredible record of 11 titles. Monte Carlo has been an ideal stage for the Greek, who recently returned to the top 10 and needs a strong performance, as he risks falling even outside the top 15.

The 2024 finalist Casper Ruud is another player looking to cause an upset. The Norwegian is one of the most dangerous clay-court specialists and is always a contender on slower surfaces. The 2-time Roland Garros finalist will begin his campaign against the winner of Brandon Nakashima vs. Roberto Bautista Agut.

The absence of Jannik Sinner in recent months has opened the door for players chasing from behind in the rankings. The World No. 1 remains comfortably at the top of the standings, and despite a three-month break and having played just one tournament this year, all signs point to him still leading the rankings upon his return at the Italian Open. So far, players like Zverev, Alcaraz, or Djokovic have not fully capitalised on Sinner’s absence — good news for the 23-year-old, who seems destined to spend several more months as World No. 1.

On the other hand, Taylor Fritz withdrew from the tournament just minutes before the draw due to an abdominal injury he’s been carrying since Indian Wells. Despite not being fully fit — something he’s mentioned in recent weeks — he showed consistency during the Sunshine Double, reaching the quarterfinals in Indian Wells and semifinals in the Miami Open, losing on both occasions to the eventual champions Jack Draper and Jakub Mensik, respectively.

Tommy Paul also withdrew, although his was a personal decision as he takes a short break. Monte Carlo is the only Masters 1000 on the calendar that is not mandatory for players, so the American — who is not a clay specialist — will use the week off to get ready for the rest of the clay swing.

Another notable absence is 19-year-old Jakub Mensik, the recent winner of his first Masters 1000 title in Miami. The Czech was set to compete in the qualifying round, as his ranking at the time of the entry list cut-off did not allow him direct entry — one week before claiming the most important title of his career. There was speculation about a possible wild card into the main draw, which did not materialise, so he would have had to play the qualies. Mensik has opted for a rest period and, given that he has virtually no points to defend in the coming months, will focus on better preparation for the remainder of the clay-court tournaments.

World No. 6 Jack Draper has undoubtedly earned a new status on the Tour after reaching his career-high ranking and winning his first Masters 1000 title. Although clay is arguably his weakest surface, the level of improvement he has shown since the second half of 2024 might well translate onto the red dirt. The British No. 1 suffered an early exit in the first round of Miami, which gave him extra time to train on clay, and he will surely arrive better acclimatised than most of the other top seeds. He awaits the winner between Marcos Giron and Denis Shapovalov.

Another name that cannot be overlooked is Francisco Cerúndolo, currently the leading South American player, who has delivered several upsets recently — including a couple of wins over top-5 players and a fierce battle against Alcaraz in Indian Wells. He feels comfortable on clay and will aim for another surprise. If he gets past Fognini in the first round, he could face Alcaraz — a tough opponent, but considering it will be Carlitos’ first competitive match on clay since the 2024 Olympic Games, it might take him some time to find his top level.

Other players with strong track records on clay include Andrey Rublev, runner-up in Monte Carlo in 2021 and champion in 2023, as well as winner of the Madrid Open 2024. The Russian is rarely mentioned among the top contenders despite his success on the surface, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he makes a deep run again.

Another player looking to make a strong impression is Holger Rune, finalist in both Monte Carlo and the Italian Open in 2023, and already with a few clay titles to his name. After reaching the final in Indian Wells, he suffered an early exit in Miami, but like Draper, having had more time to adapt to clay could help him achieve something significant. As the 10th seed, he’ll face Nuno Borges in the first round, with potential matchups against Tsitsipas and Zverev further down the draw.