ATP Finals Day Seven Schedule & Preview: Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev lead the charge in semis

The seventh day of the ATP Finals begins this Saturday, featuring the four players who have advanced to the semifinals. The group stage concluded with Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud defeating Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev, respectively, with Zverev topping his group.

Zverev faces a tough challenge against Taylor Fritz, the runner-up in the Ilie Năstase Group, who only lost to Jannik Sinner. Meanwhile, the world No. 1 will take on an in-form Casper Ruud, who aims to surprise the 2-time Grand Slam champion in their semifinal clash.

The American No. 1 has all the credentials to return to the ATP Finals semifinals, just like in 2022. Fritz had an impressive US Open campaign, reaching his first Grand Slam final before falling to the nearly unstoppable Jannik Sinner. Nonetheless, he has taken a significant step forward in his career, proving he can contend for the biggest titles. Fritz has recorded nine wins against top-10 players this season, three of which were against Zverev.

This week, Fritz secured a crucial win over Daniil Medvedev in his opening match. Despite a loss to Sinner, he ensured his spot in the semifinals by defeating Alex de Minaur. Against the Australian, Fritz struggled in the first set due to a poor first serve, costing him a break. However, he improved his precision and capitalised on key moments to clinch a tight victory (5-7, 6-4, 6-3).

On the other hand, Zverev enters the semifinals brimming with confidence. He hasn’t dropped a set and secured an impressive win over Carlos Alcaraz. The world No. 2 dominated the John Newcombe Group and is a strong favourite for the title. Zverev has achieved 69 wins this season, one more than Sinner, and is on an eight-match winning streak since claiming the Paris Masters trophy.Z

This marks the fourth time Zverev has advanced beyond the round-robin stage in seven ATP Finals appearances, with titles in 2018 and 2021. The match is expected to be a tightly contested battle between two players who thrive on their serves. Zverev has been more consistent in his serve and returns compared to Fritz, giving him the edge.

However, Fritz holds a 6-5 head-to-head advantage, including three consecutive wins since Wimbledon. He also triumphed in their only two indoor hard-court meetings at the 2019 Basel Open and the Laver Cup a few months ago.

Jannik Sinner couldn’t be in better form, entering the semifinals with three consecutive round-robin victories. Like in 2023, he advanced as the undefeated group leader. However, this year, he’s been even more dominant, riding an incredible 2024 campaign where his momentum shows no signs of slowing down. With a 68-6 record this season and seven titles, the Italian is the clear favourite to win the ATP Finals.

Since Cincinnati, Sinner boasts a 23-1 record (including six wins against top-5 players), with his only loss coming in the China Open final to Alcaraz. This week, he defeated de Minaur, Fritz, and Medvedev without showing any significant flaws. In near-flawless form, Sinner is tough to bet against, especially with the support of the Italian crowd, which has been a significant factor in recent days.

Meanwhile, Ruud secured his spot in the semifinals after winning the first set against Rublev. Despite the match going to a third set, Ruud’s consistency helped him clinch a 6-4, 5-7, 6-2 victory, maintaining high confidence. The former world No. 2 has advanced beyond the group stage in all three of his ATP Finals appearances and reached the final in 2022.

Ruud has little to lose against an unstoppable Sinner, who seems to have everything going in his favour. However, Ruud has already upset Alcaraz and delivered almost impeccable serving performances against Zverev and Rublev, maintaining over 75% of first serves and winning at least 70% of those points.

Sinner and Ruud have met only twice before, both in very different circumstances, at the 2020 and 2021 Vienna Opens. On both occasions, the Italian won in straight sets, on the same indoor hard-court surface as the ATP Finals. It remains to be seen how Ruud will counter Sinner’s game. His mission will be to hold his serve and wait for opportunities when the Italian shows any vulnerability.