ANALYSIS | Can Iga Swiatek retain her title as queen of clay?

With the Sunshine Double over, the Tour is preparing to kick off the season on clay, Iga Swiatek's preferred terrain. The Pole has dominated the tour the past few seasons but with Sabalenka coming on strong at the top and the emergence of Mirra Andreeva, the former world No. 1's hegemony could be in jeopardy.

In the blink of an eye, a quarter of the year has already passed and in the tennis world that means that the clay court season is about to begin. Aryna Sabalenka finally gave herself the pleasure of lifting a trophy in the season, since after triumphing in Brisbane, the world number 1 had been experiencing a "drought" of titles. It is true that the Belarusian has remained at the top in terms of her performance with few exceptions, sweeping everything in her path up to the finals.

The same has not been true for former world No. 1 Iga Swiatek, who has yet to win a title this season. At the Australian Open, the Pole was stunned by American Madison Keys in the semifinals. Keys would complete the feat by defeating Sabalenka to win the title in Melbourne;

Swiatek is on the worst losing streak of her career so far. Her last title was at Roland Garros 2024, where she defeated Jasmine Paolini in straight sets. From then on, she had some disappointing defeats, such as the one she suffered at Wimbledon against Putintseva, or closer in time when she did not even make it past the Round Robin at the WTA Finals.

In all this time, two fundamental events occurred to understand what may be going on in the head of the four-time Roland Garros champion:

When it became known that the Paris Olympics would be played at the Roland Garros venue, more than one would have expected the Polish player to win the gold medal. However, Zheng Qinwen had a fantastic tournament, surprising Swiatek in the semifinals with a straight-sets defeat that sent the then world No. 1 to play for the bronze medal. Although Iga would go on to win the medal, it is well known that she took one of the most bitter pills of her career with that loss to the eventual Olympic champion.

Why is that defeat so special? Because it was a direct blow to the confidence of someone who had virtually no recollection of what it felt like to lose on clay.

From that moment on, despite having shown flashes of his very high level, Swiatek no longer felt "invincible".

Since her quarterfinal loss to Jessica Pegula in New York, Swiatek did not compete again until the WTA Finals. During that period of time it became known that the Pole had tested positive in anti-doping tests and had to serve a suspension, missing almost the entire Asian tour. This was the hardest slap in the face for Swiatek, who, despite proving her innocence, saw how her image was now being branded and that many of the things she achieved would be accompanied by that stain.

As if this were not enough, Aryna Sabalenka snatched the world number 1 ranking from her shortly after winning the US Open. The extraordinary level shown by the Belarusian on fast courts, added to Swiatek's inactivity, made it impossible for the Pole to retain the top ranking.

In the WTA Finals she had a chance to regain her old place, but she had a disappointing performance, being out in the Round Robin, after 2 wins and a loss in which the sum of games and sets was not on her side.

Ready to leave behind that second half of 2024, Swiatek began her campaign at the United Cup, where she would lose in the final to Team USA. Despite losing to Coco Gauff, the current number 2 left a good feeling for the first big challenge, the Australian Open.

In Melbourne she destroyed all her competition. The Pole dished out donuts for everyone, giving up only 14 games and no sets until the epic semifinal match where Keys would take the victory 5-7, 6-1, 7-6(8).

Despite another bitter pill to swallow, Swiatek did not give up and in Doha she would once again break into the top 4, only to be defeated by Jelena Ostapenko, her nemesis on Tour. Ostapenko, another former French Open champion, has a 5-0 record against the Pole.

And if we talk about nemesis, the emergence of Mirra Andreeva as one of the forces of the circuit at 17 years old would be a new obstacle. Against the young Russian Swiatek played three times, always on fast courts. She was able to beat her in Cincinnati but in Dubai 2025 and later in Indian Wells, it was Andreeva who won the quarterfinals and semifinals respectively;

Thus we arrive at the Miami Open 2025, where thanks to the early exit of Andreeva, the former number 1 would have better chances, but again she was surprised by another young promise, the Filipina Alexandra Eala. Eala dispatched Swiatek in two sets, showing the vulnerability of the Pole in this stretch of the circuit.

Looking ahead to the clay court season, Swiatek will have a lot of work ahead of him. On the one hand, the difficult task of defending the points corresponding to the championships won in 2024 (Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros); a difficult task but one that he has already shown he can accomplish.

On the other hand, their opponents arrive highly motivated and confident. Mirra Andreeva and Coco Gauff have shown that they can bother the number 2. As if this were not enough, Sabalenka, who is not a clay court specialist, arrives full of confidence in her game after dominating in Miami and is a player who will surely go all out in this part of the year chasing the French Grand Slam.

Many challenges await Swiatek in a new tour on clay. Will she be able to live up to it or will we be facing the possibility of seeing the Polish player drop out of the top 3 of the rankings after