World No. 1 at stake: Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka’s Australian Open scenarios explained
WTA
The Australian Open women's semifinals will take place this Thursday, with Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek aiming for a dream final between the world No. 1 and world No. 2. Not only is the title at stake, but the battle for the top spot in the rankings—currently held by the Belarusian—could be decided in the final stages of the tournament.
Two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka appears as the title favourite and will face her friend Paula Badosa (No. 12) for a spot in the final. The Belarusian has 19 consecutive wins at the Australian Open and boasts a perfect 10-0 record at the start of the 2025 season. She must extend this streak to retain her world No. 1 ranking.
On the other side, Swiatek takes on Madison Keys after an impressive campaign in Melbourne, during which she dropped only seven games in her last four matches, including a dominant 6-1, 6-2 victory over Emma Navarro (No. 8). The Pole has her sights set on reclaiming the top spot, but she first needs to get past Keys (No. 14), who is also in hot form with a 10-0 start to the season.
Both Sabalenka and Swiatek control their own destiny to claim the No. 1 ranking. If either of them wins the tournament, they will automatically secure the world No. 1 spot.
As things stand in the live rankings, Swiatek leads with 8,770 points, just over 300 ahead of Sabalenka's 8,436 points. This means that if both players are eliminated in the semifinals, Swiatek will take over the top spot. If both reach the final, the winner will become world No. 1.
However, the matter could be resolved in the semifinals. If one advances to the final while the other does not, the finalist will claim the No. 1 ranking.
Scenarios in which Sabalenka remains No. 1:
• Champion.
• Finalist, with Swiatek eliminated in the semifinals.
Scenarios in which Swiatek becomes No. 1:
• Champion
• Finalist, with Sabalenka eliminated in the semifinals.
• Both Swiatek and Sabalenka eliminated in the semifinals.
Points Distribution
| If loses at semis | If reaches final | If wins the title | |
| Swiatek | 8,770 | 9,290 | 9,990 |
| Sabalenka | 8,436 | 8,956 | 9,656 |
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